Este martes 01 de agosto de 2023 se realizará la Reunión de Discusión sobre «Hidden Debt Revelations», un trabajo de Sebastian Horn, David Mihalyi, Philipp Nickol y César Sosa Padilla Araujo (University of Notre Dame).
Será con modalidad presencial a las 10:30 horas, en el aula 7 de nuestra Facultad.
La presentación estará a cargo de César Sosa Padilla Araujo.
La actividad es organizada por el Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas de nuestra Facultad.
Abstract:
How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex-post data revisions across a comprehensive new database of more than 40 vintages of the World Bank’s debt statistics. In a sample of 140 countries and 50 years of debt data, we establish three new stylized facts about hidden debt: (i) hidden debt is large and common; (ii) hidden debt afflicts all types of debtor countries and is most severe for bilateral and non-bond private creditors; (iii) hidden debt builds up during boom years, and tends to be revealed in bad times, often in the context of IMF programs and sovereign defaults. We use these novel data to numerically discipline a quantitative sovereign debt model and study the effects of hidden debt on sovereign default risk, asset pricing and welfare. Results from the model show that debt revelations have non-trivial effects: they increase default incentives and spreads, and they are welfare detrimental.
